Daily Woody Economy | Weekly Review · Jul 6–10, 2026 — SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut and a 7.6% KOSPI drop
WEEKLY REVIEW
Daily Woody Economy
A digital economy paper by editor Woody · the week in review and ahead
Jul 6–10, 2026 (Mon–Fri) · Weekly No. 2
THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE
While the KOSPI shed 7.6% through one circuit breaker and five program-trading halts, the very chips driving that selloff were being bought in New York — through the largest US listing by a foreign company on record, seven times oversubscribed, opening 15% above its offer price on day one. Seoul and New York put opposite prices on the same asset. From Monday, those two prices trade side by side in real time.
MARKET PATHS · INDEXES & CHIPS
Korean indexes · KOSPI · KOSDAQ
US indexes · S&P 500 · Nasdaq — near-flat at 100 on the same scale
Both index panels are rebased to 100 at each market's last pre-week close, on the same vertical scale (Mon–Fri). Korea's indexes sank well below 100 and clawed back Friday; the US pair barely moved off 100. KOSPI −7.57% on the week (8,088.34→7,475.94); Tuesday's intraday drop of 8.22% tripped Korea's sixth circuit breaker of the year, and the week's intraday low was 7,063.76 on Thursday. KOSPI daily closes: 8,051 → 7,656 → 7,247 → 7,292 → 7,476. US indexes are at the Jul 10 regular-session close. Base closes: KOSPI 8,088.34 · KOSDAQ 868.41 · S&P 7,483.24 · Nasdaq 25,832.67. Sources: Korea Exchange, CNBC, Yonhap, Aju Business Daily.
Chip leaders · Samsung Electronics · SK Hynix — the stocks that dragged the index
Rebased to the prior Friday (Jul 3) close = 100 (daily closes). Same sector, opposite Mondays: Samsung rose on earnings anticipation (+2.75%) while SK Hynix fell on the ADR-premium debate (−3.38%). Samsung then slid after Tuesday's preliminary print; SK Hynix bottomed Wednesday (85.6) before rebounding Thursday on the ADR book-building demand. Daily closes — Samsung 318,000 → 296,000 → 277,500 → 278,000 → 285,000 won / SK Hynix 2.343m → 2.201m → 2.076m → 2.186m → 2.180m won. Own vertical scale (a stock category, separate from the index panels). Sources: Korea Exchange & Naver Finance, Namdo Ilbo, Economist, Herald Corp.
OTHER GAUGES · SNAPSHOT (no line · Friday close / quote basis)
USD/KRW 1,501.4 (Fri day-session close · ▼24.2 won on the week, a stronger won) · WTI ~$71 (up ~4–5% on the week · $73.52 high Wed) · Gold $4,112 (COMEX Aug) · US 10-yr 4.55% (Thu close) · BTC ~$63.8k
USD/KRW 1,501.4 (Fri day-session close · ▼24.2 won on the week, a stronger won) · WTI ~$71 (up ~4–5% on the week · $73.52 high Wed) · Gold $4,112 (COMEX Aug) · US 10-yr 4.55% (Thu close) · BTC ~$63.8k
THROUGHLINE
This week, Seoul priced Korean semiconductors at their cheapest since the global financial crisis — the KOSPI's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio fell to 6.6 (Shinhan Securities). The same week, New York bid for the same asset above its Seoul price, placing roughly $171.5 billion of orders for a $26.5 billion deal — then bid it up another 14% at Friday's opening trade.
The gap between those two prices was the axis the week turned on. What Seoul sold was a reading of the cycle's peak: the day Samsung Electronics reported a quarterly operating profit of 89.4 trillion won (about $60 billion), its shares fell 6.92%, and the view that this number marks the top took hold in the market. What New York bought was a stake in the HBM oligopoly — a company that had never traded on a US exchange, opening at 5.8 times forward earnings against Micron's roughly 7. Foreign investors dumped $1.1 billion of the Seoul-listed shares on Friday; the read that settled in the market was a switch into the ADR.
Currency markets moved first. On expectations of the $26.5 billion in offering proceeds flowing in, the won strengthened into the 1,400s on Wednesday — the very day the stock index fell 5%. From Monday, regular trading in SKHY puts the Seoul price and the New York price side by side in live quotes for the first time. Which way that gap closes is the first signal of the next phase.
THE GLOBAL READ
Korea supplies the high-bandwidth memory that feeds the world's AI accelerators, and SK Hynix leads that market. What moved this week was not just a stock but where that bottleneck gets priced: the largest US listing by any foreign company on record — bigger than Alibaba in 2014 — shifted part of the price discovery for AI memory from Seoul to Nasdaq, in the same week Korea's home index crossed into bear-market territory. Add $78 oil out of the Hormuz escalation, a Fed whose June minutes showed members favoring a hike, and a Bank of Korea telegraphing its first increase in three and a half years, and the world's AI trade heads into next week with its key supplier repriced and both of its central banks leaning tighter.
THE WEEK'S TOP 5
1SK Hynix lists ADRs on Nasdaq — the largest US IPO ever by a foreign company
The offering priced at $149 per ADR — which the company says was a premium to the Seoul close, not the customary discount. Selling 177.9 million ADRs, equal to 2.5% of shares outstanding, raised $26.5 billion, topping Alibaba's $25 billion in 2014 and trailing only SpaceX ($85.7 billion) among all US IPOs. Orders reached roughly $171.5 billion — seven times the deal — anchored by $5 billion in cornerstone commitments from Baillie Gifford, Coatue and Situational Awareness. SKHYV opened Friday at $171.50, 15% above the $149 offer; proceeds fund EUV lithography tools and new fabs in Korea, with the new shares also listing on the KOSPI on July 29.
➤ Converted to underlying shares, New York paid about 50,000 won more per share than Thursday's Seoul close — and one-fortieth of the equity brought in about 40 trillion won of cash in a single stroke.
2Ten percent in two days — the selloff of Black Wednesday
Tuesday's intraday slide reached 8.22%, tripping a market-wide circuit breaker before the KOSPI closed down 4.91%. Wednesday brought another 5.35% drop to 7,246.79, and the KOSDAQ lost the 800 line for the first time in ten months. The dominant read on Wednesday's fall paired worries that chip profits are passing their peak with the reignited US–Iran conflict. The KOSPI now trades at 6.6 times forward earnings, its lowest since the financial crisis (Shinhan Securities); a Wall Street Journal column warned that concentration and leverage have made Korea's rally fragile.
➤ From last month's all-time high of 9,385.59, Wednesday's close sat 22.8% lower — this was the week the index crossed the conventional −20% bear-market line.
3Samsung posts a $60 billion quarter — and falls 6.92%
Samsung Electronics' preliminary second-quarter results, out Tuesday: revenue of 171 trillion won and operating profit of 89.4 trillion won (roughly $60 billion) — up about nineteen-fold from a year earlier, a third straight record, and above the 84–85 trillion consensus even after setting aside some 20 trillion won for employee bonuses. Strip out that provision and analysts put the underlying figure above 100 trillion. The stock still fell 6.92% on the day; brokerages said investor expectations sat above published forecasts, and that the print became a trigger to sell (Kiwoom, Mirae Asset).
➤ A quarter earned at roughly $650 million a day became a selling event — the market's bar was set higher than the record.
Sources: Yonhap via FNNews · Seoul Economic Daily
4The US–Iran truce collapses — Hormuz puts oil back on the board
After US Central Command said three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz came under Iranian attack, the US struck more than 80 targets in Iran and revoked its waiver on Iranian oil sales. President Trump declared the ceasefire “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara; Iran retaliated against US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Brent jumped over 5% Wednesday to the $78 area, its highest since late June, before easing late in the week as President Trump said Iran had offered talks and tankers kept transiting.
➤ A 39-kilometer strait that carries a fifth of the world's oil and gas is once again the market's single variable.
5Seoul's FX market goes 24 hours — and the won rides a rollercoaster
Monday marked the first day of round-the-clock trading in Seoul's foreign-exchange market, a structural reform meant to align Korea's currency with global trading hours. The dollar-won rate hit 1,530.3 that day, then sank 29.7 won on Wednesday to 1,498.5 — the won's strongest in two months — before ending the week at 1,501.4. Market participants pointed to expected dollar inflows from SK Hynix's $26.5 billion offering as the driver of Wednesday's move. The currency strengthened on the same day the stock index fell 5%.
➤ One Wednesday, moving in opposite directions, showed where the market judged capital to be headed.
THE WEEK AHEAD
◆Bank of Korea (Thu, Jul 16) — the first hike in three and a half years?
Governor Hyun Song Shin told lawmakers on Thursday that a rate increase “will be needed at an appropriate time,” and markets now lean toward a move from 2.50% to 2.75% — the first hike since January 2023 (Citi expects July, then October). Inflation at 3.2% and a won near 1,500 per dollar are the stated grounds. The question is less the hike than the path: 19 of 21 dots in the board's May projections pointed up. Critics counter that floating-rate borrowers and the self-employed argue for a slower pace.
Governor Hyun Song Shin told lawmakers on Thursday that a rate increase “will be needed at an appropriate time,” and markets now lean toward a move from 2.50% to 2.75% — the first hike since January 2023 (Citi expects July, then October). Inflation at 3.2% and a won near 1,500 per dollar are the stated grounds. The question is less the hike than the path: 19 of 21 dots in the board's May projections pointed up. Critics counter that floating-rate borrowers and the self-employed argue for a slower pace.
◆SKHY regular trading begins (Mon, Jul 13) — the convergence test
With conditional dealings done, Monday opens regular trading. Whether the debut premium over the Seoul line holds, and whether Friday's $1.1 billion of foreign selling in the underlying shares continues, will set the tone for Korean flows. Brokerages call the ADR a watershed for chip-sector supply and demand — while cautioning the stabilizing effect could prove temporary. The new shares list on the KOSPI on July 29.
With conditional dealings done, Monday opens regular trading. Whether the debut premium over the Seoul line holds, and whether Friday's $1.1 billion of foreign selling in the underlying shares continues, will set the tone for Korean flows. Brokerages call the ADR a watershed for chip-sector supply and demand — while cautioning the stabilizing effect could prove temporary. The new shares list on the KOSPI on July 29.
◆US June CPI (Tue, Jul 14, 8:30am ET) — testing the oil-inflation read
The Fed's June minutes showed members favoring a hike, and futures now price at least one quarter-point increase this year (LSEG, CME FedWatch). The question is whether this month's oil spike has fed through into the actual print — and whether any pressure survives if crude keeps easing. The same week, US earnings season begins in earnest, with S&P 500 profits expected up 24% year over year (LSEG).
The Fed's June minutes showed members favoring a hike, and futures now price at least one quarter-point increase this year (LSEG, CME FedWatch). The question is whether this month's oil spike has fed through into the actual print — and whether any pressure survives if crude keeps easing. The same week, US earnings season begins in earnest, with S&P 500 profits expected up 24% year over year (LSEG).
◆Hormuz — between talks and blockade
Goldman Sachs sees logistics normalizing by late July if negotiations resume and tanker safety holds (6.6 million barrels a day of flows need restoring), and warns of further disruption if they don't. WisdomTree expects Brent to hold a $75–85 range over the coming month. A full ban on Iranian crude transactions takes effect July 17.
Goldman Sachs sees logistics normalizing by late July if negotiations resume and tanker safety holds (6.6 million barrels a day of flows need restoring), and warns of further disruption if they don't. WisdomTree expects Brent to hold a $75–85 range over the coming month. A full ban on Iranian crude transactions takes effect July 17.
Daily Woody Economy is published by editor Woody, who uses Anthropic's Claude AI as a tool for news research, analysis, and editing. Some analysis and beneath-the-headline reads include AI-assisted content; readers are encouraged to apply their own judgment and cross-verify.
Investment-related content on this page is for reference only and is neither a recommendation nor a forecast. All investment decisions are the reader's own responsibility.
Investment-related content on this page is for reference only and is neither a recommendation nor a forecast. All investment decisions are the reader's own responsibility.
댓글
댓글 쓰기